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Multiple Sclerosis
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research-article

Can rate of brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis be explained by clinical and MRI characteristics?

T Korteweg

Department of Radiology, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands T.Korteweg{at}vumc.nl

M Rovaris

Neuroimaging Research Unit, Department of Neurology, Scientific Institute and University Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy

V Neacsu

Department of Radiology, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

M Filippi

Neuroimaging Research Unit, Department of Neurology, Scientific Institute and University Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy

G Comi

Neuroimaging Research Unit, Department of Neurology, Scientific Institute and University Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy

BM Uitdehaag

Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Neurology, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

DL Knol

Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

CH Polman

Department of Neurology, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

F Barkhof

Department of Radiology, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

H Vrenken

Department of Radiology, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Physics and Medical Technology, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

On behalf of the MAGNIMS collaboration

Introduction

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized, besides focal lesions, by brain atrophy. The determinants of atrophy rates in individual patients are poorly understood.

Aim

This study investigated the predictive value of clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) factors, including short-term changes thereof, for concurrent and future atrophy evolution using Spearman’s rank correlations and stepwise multiple linear regression.

Methods

We retrospectively identified a group of 115 active, early relapsing-remitting (RR) patients relatively homogeneous in terms of disease course and MRI activity compared to a second group of 96 patients with broader spectrum of MS phenotypes and inactive scans. All patients had undergone three MRI investigations with interscan intervals of at least 12 and 24 months, respectively.

Results

In the RR patients, 23% of variance in concurrent atrophy rates (over the first interval) could be explained by the combination of baseline T2 lesion volume and change in EDSS score over the first interval, whereas only 6% in future atrophy rates (over the second interval) was explained. In the heterogeneous group, 20.2% of the variance in future atrophy rates could be explained, but slightly less in concurrent atrophy rates (16.2%).

Conclusion

We concluded that variance in brain atrophy rates can partially be explained by clinical and MRI measures of disease. Future atrophy rates in individual MS patients are difficult to predict even when including previous atrophy rates.

Key Words: atrophy • brain • MRI • multiple sclerosis • prediction

This version was published on April 1, 2009

Multiple Sclerosis, Vol. 15, No. 4, 465-471 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/1352458508100505


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